
Soybeans rose on commercial and technical buying amid crop stress from hot, dry weather and strong demand for new-crop beans. US beans trade at a large discount to Brazil, whose old-crop supply is nearly exhausted.
Corn was mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking, while the EU cut its 2020 corn estimate to 70.2 million tons.
Weather stress and a discount to Brazil support US soybean demand and prices, while the expected USDA yield cut for corn could tighten feed grain supplies later.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.