What to expect as Opec+ tapers its historic output deal

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• May 25, 2017Opec, non-Opec producers roll over output restraint deal for nine months to curb glut | The National-7.0%
• Sep 7, 2025Opec+ agrees another rise in oil output for October | The National+3.4%
• Mar 14, 2017Saudi Arabia tells Opec it raised output to 10 million bpd in February | The National+0.8%
• Jul 18, 2021Opec+ ends deadlock and will boost supply in August | The National+0.6%
• Oct 5, 2025Oil rises after OPEC+ hikes output less than expected | Reuters-2.7%

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• May 25, 2017Opec, non-Opec producers roll over output restraint deal for nine months to curb glut | The National-5.4%
• Sep 7, 2025Opec+ agrees another rise in oil output for October | The National+1.3%
• Mar 14, 2017Saudi Arabia tells Opec it raised output to 10 million bpd in February | The National-0.3%
• Jul 18, 2021Opec+ ends deadlock and will boost supply in August | The National+0.6%
• Oct 5, 2025Oil rises after OPEC+ hikes output less than expected | Reuters-3.1%