Indonesia plans to finish research on a 40% biodiesel blend (B40) by November 2020 and mandate its use from July 2021, after a delay caused by the coronavirus outbreak. The funding gap has widened as falling crude prices raised the cost of biodiesel relative to diesel.
The levy on palm exports was raised to $55/t in May.
A firm B40 mandate would absorb significantly more domestic palm oil, tightening exportable supplies and supporting palm oil prices.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.