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An investment note argues the September Fed decision ended the US inflation-containment regime, with negative real rates likely ahead. It expects a dollar bear market to continue, with stronger EUR/USD and Australian dollar prospects and gold support.
A prolonged weak dollar expectation supports dollar-priced commodities and can lift feed input costs for importers. This is an opinion piece on macro outlook rather than a new market-moving event.
ubp.comMichaël Lok, Norman Villamin, Patrice Gautry, Peter KinsellaSep 30, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
