
Argentina's government is weighing a temporary cut in some crop export taxes to boost dollar inflows as foreign reserves fall to a three-year low. Soy is the main candidate, and measures could apply in October.
Officials have not yet decided on the products, the percentage cut or how it would work.
A lower export tax would encourage Argentine farmers to sell more soybeans and products abroad, adding supply to world markets and pressuring soybean and meal prices.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.