USD/CAD Helped By Oil Weakness, But Election Anxiety Keeps a Lid

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 30, 2018Poloz helped the Loonie, but a weak Crude Oil and a strong USD dollar index are not - OFX (US)-5.8%
• Oct 30, 2020Commodity currencies slide on oil, dollar braces for election | Financial Post+7.3%
• Sep 23, 2024Oil settles lower on weak euro zone business activity-5.4%
• Jul 30, 2020USD/CAD jumps to weekly highs above 1.3450 on oil selloff — Octa+2.6%
• Apr 27, 2023Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC+-7.7%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Oct 30, 2020Commodity currencies slide on oil, dollar braces for election | Financial Post+8.3%
• Sep 23, 2024Oil settles lower on weak euro zone business activity-4.5%
• Apr 27, 2023Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC+-7.4%
• Jul 6, 2022Oil’s Current Plunge: Goodbye Inflation Trade, Hello Recession-3.2%
• May 11, 2023Oil falls 2% on weak US and Chinese economic data | Reuters+0.5%