
Ukraine has shipped 15.48 million tonnes of staple grains in the 2020/21 season, down 14% year on year. Wheat exports reached 10.26 million tonnes, 59% of the agreed 17.5 million tonne export limit, while corn exports fell 48% to 1.86 million tonnes.
USDA cut its Ukrainian corn forecast by 2 million tonnes to 36.5 million.
Slower corn exports and a smaller USDA Ukrainian crop tighten global corn supply, supporting prices. Wheat shipments remain below last year's pace but are well within the quota.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.