
Ukraine shipped 43.42 million tonnes of staple grains in the 2020/21 season through 25 June, down 21.8% year on year. Corn exports were 22.6 million tonnes, down 25%, and wheat was 16.41 million tonnes, down 19.5%.
Wheat shipments reached 93.7% of the agreed export limit.
Lower Ukrainian exports mean less grain reaching world markets and less competition for buyers, which is mildly supportive for corn and wheat prices. The effect is limited because the season is nearly over.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.