
Ukraine has shipped 21.92 million tons of staple grains since the 2020/21 season began, 12% below the prior year. Corn exports are down 22% and wheat exports are down 11%, and 68.5% of the agreed 17.5 million ton wheat export limit has shipped.
Lower Ukrainian export pace reflects tighter supply, which modestly supports world corn and wheat prices.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.