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US natural gas futures tumbled on Nov. 19 after forecasts shifted warmer through early December, reversing a short-lived gain.
Government data showed an unusually large storage injection for the time of year. The March-April spread narrowed to a record low, reflecting skepticism about tight winter supply.
Warmer forecasts and a large storage build reduce expected winter heating demand and weaken the bullish case for gas. Lower gas prices can reduce input costs for fertilizer and ethanol but also weaken the case for higher gas-linked energy prices.
energynow.comNov 23, 2020After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
