
Brazilian stocks and the real rose on November 3 after a better-than-expected manufacturing survey showed record October activity. Other Latin American currencies also recovered as the dollar weakened ahead of the US presidential election.
A firmer real and a weaker dollar move Brazilian export pricing, which affects global soybean and corn trade flows. The move is modest and mainly reflects currency and macro sentiment rather than a grain supply change.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.