
Emerging market currencies rallied on July 2, 2021 after US nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected, weakening the dollar. The Brazilian real rose as much as 1.2% intraday, while Colombian assets fell after a second ratings downgrade to junk.
A weaker dollar and a firmer real make Brazilian soybean and corn exports less competitive in dollar terms only at the margin, but a softer dollar generally supports dollar-priced grain and meal.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.