
Wholesale diesel rose about 8% or $0.10 a gallon in the first days of the week, the steepest increase since June, as refiners cut production. Trucking capacity is tight and freight demand is at record levels from e-commerce during the holiday season.
Refinery closures and output cuts point to higher fuel costs and narrower rack-to-retail spreads, which raise transport costs for feed buyers. The analyst expects greater fuel price volatility into 2021.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.