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USDA raised its 2026 and 2027 U.S. milk production forecasts by 600 million pounds each in its latest WASDE, to 237.2 and 238.6 billion pounds, on higher cow inventories and output per cow. Price forecasts were cut for cheese and butter but raised for nonfat dry milk and whey.
Larger expected milk output combined with lower cheese and butter forecasts points to weaker Class III milk prices, while higher NDM and whey forecasts support protein-driven feed ingredients.
dairystar.comSep 26, 2026After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA raised 2026 and 2027 milk production forecasts on higher cow numbers and yields and cut cheese and butter price forecasts, a bearish supply signal for Class III that was published just before the 5-day drop.
WASDE raised milk production forecasts and cut cheese price forecasts, a bearish supply and sentiment signal for Class III.
WASDE raised milk production forecasts on higher cow inventories and cut cheese and butter price forecasts, a bearish supply signal for Class III.
USDA raised 2026-27 milk production forecasts on higher cow inventories and cut cheese and butter price forecasts, a bearish supply signal for cheese-driven Class III.
