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Dry, hot conditions in parts of the U.S. Great Plains have left young winter wheat stressed, with abnormal dryness and moderate drought spreading in Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska and Oklahoma over three months. Hedge funds increased bets on a rally in hard red winter wheat to the highest in 15 months.
Plains drought stress raises the risk of a smaller HRW crop, and fund buying signals firmer HRW prices even though global stocks remain large.
drovers.comNov 13, 2020After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
