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An IATP commentary argues that close to $40 billion in 2020 farm payments mask weak market incomes and that these ad hoc payments are expected to end or shrink in 2021. It notes that USDA projects median farm income of $934 in 2020, up from $296 in 2019.
Farm debt is forecast to reach a record $433 billion.
If payments fall off in 2021, financial stress could reduce planting or lead to forced sales, which could tighten feed grain supply over time.
iatp.orgBen LillistonNov 13, 2020After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
