India, the world's largest urea importer, is on track for record purchases, with imports of over 9mn t already bought in the current fiscal year and a forecast record of 11mn t for calendar 2020. Argus Analytics expects 2021 imports to fall to about 9mn t as new capacity comes online and agricultural demand slows.
Indian tenders have been the main price driver in the global urea market, so expected lower Indian import needs in 2021 point to fewer tenders and weaker global urea prices.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.