CattleFax analysts reported record March beef exports, up 32.9 million pounds year over year, driven mainly by China. Slaughter capacity remains constrained by COVID-19 distancing, absenteeism and worker shortages, and the leverage ratio sits well below the five-year average.
Strong exports and capacity limits keep packer leverage high and feeders' returns weak, so fed cattle prices are expected to stay supported. Reduced Australian slaughter also boosts US beef demand in Japan.
After 78 past bullish trade events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.