◂ Event Timeline

Dec 17, 2020TRADEUS

Market Facilitation Program Fails to Offset Trade War Losses for California Farmers

UC Davis economists found that two years of Market Facilitation Program payments covered only about half of California's net losses from the trade war. California received a smaller share of MFP payments than the US state average, despite incurring the largest welfare losses of any state.

WHY IT MATTERS

The research highlights the lasting cost of tariff-driven trade diversion on US agricultural exports, but it does not identify a new price driver for feed commodities.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)

SOURCE
agriculture.ucdavis.eduDecember 17, 2020Dec 17, 2020

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d +0.7%5d -1.9%20d +15.2%

After 1,982 past trade events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.

Apr 4, 2022Title III Of The Farm Bill: Agricultural Trade And Food Assistance Programs+5.4%
Dec 12, 2019Farmers receive $10.5 billion to offset trade war losses — APM Research Lab+5.5%
Jul 2, 2020USMCA Enters Into Force, Paves Way For Improved Agricultural Market Access - U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council+0.9%
Jul 28, 2025Agricultural Trade: Supporting U.S. Farms, Jobs and Communities | Farm Bureau Intel Markets | American Farm Bureau Federation+0.5%
Jun 24, 2018Trade wars leave farming as a casualty - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets-1.1%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d +1.5%5d +6.3%20d +19.7%

After 1,802 past trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

Apr 4, 2022Title III Of The Farm Bill: Agricultural Trade And Food Assistance Programs+6.7%
Dec 12, 2019Farmers receive $10.5 billion to offset trade war losses — APM Research Lab+3.9%
Jul 28, 2025Agricultural Trade: Supporting U.S. Farms, Jobs and Communities | Farm Bureau Intel Markets | American Farm Bureau Federation-3.7%
Jun 24, 2018Trade wars leave farming as a casualty - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets-4.0%
Nov 14, 2018U.S. farmers scramble to contain trade-war damage, find new markets+1.6%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d +0.3%5d +1.1%20d +7.1%

After 1,079 past trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.2% over 20.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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