The US International Trade Commission scheduled the final phase of countervailing duty investigations into phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia, following Commerce's preliminary finding that these imports are subsidized. The notice sets the review that will determine whether US industry is materially injured.
Possible countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate would restrict import supply and raise US DAP and MAP costs, which lifts phosphate prices for US farmers.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.