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The US International Trade Commission began a countervailing duty investigation into phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco in June 2020, after a petition from Mosaic. Imports of DAP and MAP from Morocco fell to zero by August, and a final duty decision is expected in February 2021, with duties possibly applied retroactively to June.
Halted Moroccan imports tighten US phosphate supply ahead of spring application, which supports higher DAP and MAP prices. The pending duty decision adds further uncertainty to availability and cost.
promote-trade.orgAinsley SheaJan 21, 2021After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The US CVD investigation on Moroccan phosphate cut imports to zero and tightened US supply, with a final decision due in February 2021, supporting a sharp DAP price jump.
