The US Commerce Department proposed raising countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer from 2.12% to 14.21%, and lowering duties on Russian phosphate from 28.5% to 18.83%. The changes would take effect in November 2024 and apply retroactively to 2022 imports, following a petition from Mosaic.
Higher duties on Moroccan supply could tighten US phosphate availability and lift DAP and TSP prices, with OCP likely to halt US shipments again.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.