
The Rice Advocate reports that the US Southern planting season is nearly finished, with Arkansas at 90% and Missouri at 83% planted, both trailing the five-year average. Arkansas emergence was 81%, with 64% of the crop in good or excellent condition.
Old-crop paddy is tight in every state, and a tropical storm was forming in the Gulf.
Delayed planting and tight old-crop supplies support rice prices, and a Gulf storm adds weather risk to the crop. Buyers should expect firm rice pricing.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.