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Indonesian rice prices rose at all levels in early October, with medium rice at the retail level up to USD 0.85 per kg. Indonesia's September rice inflation was 5.61% month-on-month, and El Niño may cut 2023 output by about 1.2 million tons.
Government is preparing reserve imports.
Expected production shortfall and planned state imports could lift Indonesian rice demand and support regional rice prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.