
Analysts expect the U.S. rice market could repeat 2019, when prices fell in spring and then rebounded on shorter-than-expected crops in Brazil, India and the U.S. Brazil, which exported up to 3 million tonnes in recent years, may need to import rice due to smaller crops and a weaker dollar.
Smaller crops and a shift to Brazilian imports reduce exportable rice supplies in the Western Hemisphere, supporting firmer rice prices. The outlook suggests the market could bottom in March and move higher.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.