
The January 2021 WASDE cut U.S. 2020/21 wheat ending stocks by 26 million bushels to 836 million, and raised the season-average farm price to $4.85. Global wheat supplies were lowered 1.6 million tons, with reduced output in China and Argentina partly offset by a record Russian crop.
World consumption was raised 1.8 million tons.
Lower U.S. and global ending stocks and higher consumption tighten the balance sheet, which supports wheat prices. Feed use rose on expected substitution from corn.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.