
Grain markets rallied strongly since August 2020, with CBOT wheat up 185 cents, corn up 110 cents and soybeans up 550 cents per bushel. A sharp sell-off began the week of January 25 as South American rain and technical selling pushed soybeans limit down and dragged wheat and corn lower.
Improved South American rainfall reduces supply concerns for soybeans, corn and wheat, pressuring prices, while shipping space in Australia remains tight.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.