D4 RIN prices for 2020 hit a high of $1.1475 on January 6, while soybean oil futures reached a seven-year high of 44.39 cents per lb the same day. Platts reports that high feedstock costs have driven RIN prices higher, supporting biodiesel producer margins.
Higher RIN values offset soybean oil feedstock costs for biodiesel producers, supporting soybean oil demand and crush margins; uncertainty over the unannounced 2021 RVO remains a key swing factor.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.