US live and feeder cattle futures settled lower on February 3, with April live cattle down slightly. Traders are watching hopes for increased Chinese meat demand, while analysts flagged a resurgence of African swine fever in China.
Renewed African swine fever in China could raise import demand for meat, but the risk is still largely speculative and the immediate price move is small.
After 69 past neutral disease events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 29 past neutral disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.