
Chinese soybean crushers are expected to curtail operations sharply in coming months because of harvest delays in top exporter Brazil. Drought delayed Brazilian planting in late 2020 and rains have disrupted this year's harvest.
China's soymeal futures rose 6% in February to 3,587 yuan per tonne, and domestic soybean prices rallied 8%.
Reduced crush in China lowers meal output and is likely to draw down inventories, supporting soymeal and soybean prices. Brazilian supply delays tighten the global soybean balance.
After 453 past bullish weather events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.