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Ethanol margins in the Corn Belt fell to negative $3.92 a gallon, the lowest since at least 2010, according to Refinitiv data. Natural gas prices hit multi-year highs during the cold snap, prompting some producers to cut ethanol output and sell their gas for a profit.
Lower ethanol output reduces corn grind and DDGS production, which is bearish for corn and DDGS prices. Higher natural gas costs raise processing expenses and support natural gas prices.
reuters.comStephanie KellyFeb 16, 2021After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
