
Astra Agro Lestari CEO Santosa said not all private palm firms are benefiting from CPO prices above US$800 per ton because of Indonesia's progressive export levy, which supports the B30 biodiesel mandate. Under PMK 191/2020, levy rates rise in tiers tied to the CPO reference price, effective December 10, 2020.
A tiered levy absorbs much of the upside in CPO prices for exporters, which can dampen export incentives and shift more palm oil into the domestic biodiesel market, supporting palm and competing vegetable oil prices.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.