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US natural gas futures fell to a four-week low on March 1 at $2.745 per mmBtu on forecasts for milder March weather and lower heating demand. Lower 48 output dropped to 86.5 bcfd in February due to freeze-offs, and speculators cut net longs.
Milder weather and reduced heating demand push gas prices lower, easing energy and nitrogen fertilizer costs for feed producers.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.