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US natural gas futures fell about 5% to a seven-week low on Tuesday, with the November contract at $2.201 per mmBtu. Forecasts for mild weather through mid-November and rising output squeezed demand.
The December premium over November was on track for a record high.
Mild weather cuts heating demand while rising output adds supply, pressuring spot prices. The record December premium signals expectations of looser near-term supply versus later winter demand.
brecorder.comReutersOct 30, 2024brecorder.comReutersNov 1, 2024After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Directly describes the Oct 30 session: Nov contract expiry at $2.201 and the record December premium over November reflect the roll to the more expensive front month, which plausibly explains a large continuous-series jump.
