World urea quotations fell after India's RCF tender, where the government bought only about 800,000 t against roughly 1.3 million t offered. Trading companies had accepted lower counter-offers, and Chinese prilled urea intended for India has few alternative markets.
Buyers in Brazil and elsewhere are seeking lower prices.
Oversupply of Chinese urea and weak buyer demand point to lower nitrogen prices, which eases fertilizer costs for grain and feed producers. The next Indian tender is expected to be used to test whether prices fall further.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.