
The April WASDE raised the 2021 US milk production forecast by 400 million pounds to 227.7 billion pounds, citing more cows. The all-milk price forecast rose 65 cents to $18.40 per cwt.
The Class III forecast was raised to $17.10 and the Class IV forecast to $15.15.
A larger milk supply is bearish for dairy prices, but higher product price forecasts and firmer demand offset part of that effect. Feed buyers should note the expected rise in dairy-herd feed demand.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.