
A Nature Conservancy climate assessment for Illinois projects that heat and water stress will reduce soybean yields later this century and corn yields by midcentury. It also finds wetter springs and heavier rainfall events have already increased in the state.
The findings are long-term and do not change near-term supply, so they have little direct effect on current corn or soybean prices.
After 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.