USDA's Argentina office cut the 2020/21 soybean crop estimate to 45 million mt and exports to 5.5 million mt, citing prolonged dry conditions and yield declines. It forecast 2021/22 soybean output at 51.5 million mt on higher planted area and yield recovery.
A smaller Argentine crop and reduced exports tighten world soymeal and soyoil supply, supporting prices for feed buyers. The stronger 2021/22 outlook partly caps the upside.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.