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The EU may ban or limit imports of Belarusian potash and other fertilizers as part of expanded sanctions tied to the Ryanair forced landing and arrest of Roman Protasevich. Potash accounts for about 20% of Belarus's budget revenue and the EU is one of its major buyers.
Sanctions on Belarusian potash, which supplies a large share of global exports, could tighten global potash supply and lift fertilizer prices.
intellinews.comBen Aris in BerlinMay 28, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 11 past neutral geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.0% to +5.9%), and +7.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
