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A paper in the American Economic Review by Diego Känzig estimates how OPEC production announcements shift oil prices, economic activity and inflation expectations. The study finds that news about future supply moves prices even when current output is unchanged.
The findings show that OPEC signalling alone can move crude prices, so feed and energy buyers should watch its meeting announcements. The research is background analysis and does not change current supply.
aeaweb.orgMay 5, 2021After 691 past macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.6% to +3.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
