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MUFG warns that a prolonged Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure could push USD/VND above 27,000 in 2026. Its base case is 26,300 by March and 26,600 by December, assuming de-escalation and falling oil prices.
A tail scenario with oil at $120 would take the rate to 27,700 or higher.
The forecast ties dong weakness to oil shock scenarios, which would raise feed import costs for Vietnamese buyers. It is an analyst forecast rather than a market-moving event.
fxstreet.comFXStreet Insights TeamMar 18, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 323 past bullish macro events, BRENT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
