
New Zealand's fertiliser co-operatives Ballance and Ravensdown say their DAP supply will not be affected by China's export clampdown. China supplied about 265,000 tonnes of DAP in the year to August, and Ballance reports that its suppliers have assured it of supply.
Bulk freight rates have risen due to COVID-19 and port closures, but availability has not fallen.
Long-term supply contracts and spring coverage limit the near-term price impact for New Zealand buyers, though rising freight costs still add to landed prices.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.