USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke at the Kansas City Agriculture Outlook Forum on the farm economy. She cited increases since 2020 of 18% in seed costs, 32% in fuel and oil, 37% in fertilizer, and 73% in interest expenses.
USDA and the Department of Justice also signed a memorandum to scrutinize competition in agricultural input markets.
Rising input costs squeeze farm margins, which can reduce planting intensity and fertilizer demand over time. The antitrust review could affect feed, fertilizer and fuel pricing if it leads to enforcement.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.