
Hot, dry weather in Washington, Oregon and Idaho has left much of the Pacific Northwest in drought, the driest conditions in a generation. Soft white wheat FOB prices are up $4 a bushel year on year, and farmers are reluctant to forward contract new crop.
Lower yields and higher protein levels could cut soft white supplies and raise export prices. Traders' caution on new-crop sales adds to upward price pressure.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.