
Fonterra cut its 2016/17 season milk supply forecast to minus 7% after a very wet spring cut October collections in Waikato by 14%. The GDT auction index rose 11.4%, with whole milk powder up 19.8% as Chinese buyers competed for supply.
A sharp New Zealand supply shortfall in the world's largest tradable WMP supplier tightens global dairy supply and lifts prices, improving farmgate payout expectations.
After 32 past bullish weather events, MILK moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Fonterra's supply forecast cut to -7% after wet weather cut Waikato October collections by 14%, combined with Chinese buying at GDT, tightened global supply and supported dairy prices.
A 14% drop in Waikato October collections and a lower Fonterra forecast, with Chinese buyers competing, tightened export supply and boosted global prices.