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The Colombian peso has depreciated about 13.6% against the US dollar so far this year, losing roughly 150 pesos since January and surpassing the 3,900 level. The analysis links the weakness to dollar strength as a safe haven, tax reform protests, the loss of investment grade from S&P and Fitch, and a trade deficit.
The outlook sees asymmetrically positive risk balance given high oil prices and activity data showing a recovery.
Persistent peso weakness and a widening risk premium raise the cost of imported feed ingredients for Colombian buyers, while high oil prices support the currency through its historical sensitivity. The outlook is mainly a currency view with limited direct effect on feed commodity prices.
accivalores.comAccionesyvaloresJul 7, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
