The national average on-highway diesel price reached $3.34 last week and faces further pressure as Hurricane Ida crossed the Southeast. About 13% of US refining capacity was estimated offline, and more than a million people in Louisiana and Mississippi lost power.
AAA said a Category 4 storm could keep refineries out for three or more weeks.
Extended refinery outages would keep diesel prices elevated into the Labor Day period, raising transport costs for feed mills and grain movement. The effect on feed prices depends on how long the outages last.
After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.