Market rumors that the EPA will recommend unchanged or lower biofuel blending mandates for 2022 pressured corn prices. The agency has not formally changed the Renewable Fuels Standard, and the proposal still must clear OMB review.
Renewable diesel expansion is expected to keep soybean oil demand strong.
Lower blending mandates would reduce corn ethanol demand, while continued renewable diesel growth supports soybean oil and the soybean crush.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.