
The Grains Industry Association of WA projects a record state grain crop of close to 20 million tonnes, up from 16.6 million last year. Waterlogging in southern parts of the belt is expected to be offset by good conditions in the north and centre, though frost and heat remain risks.
A record WA crop would add exportable wheat and barley supply from Australia, a mild bearish factor. Frost or heat during spring could cut that outlook.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.