
Reports on Friday, August 20, said the EPA was prepared to recommend renewable volume obligations below 2020 levels, and grain and oilseed prices fell sharply. On Monday, Growth Energy and the Renewable Fuels Association said they could not confirm those reports, and Growth Energy confirmed no official proposal had reached the OMB.
Expectations of lower biofuel blending mandates reduce expected demand for soybean oil and corn-based ethanol, which weighs on oilseed and corn prices. Until a formal proposal appears, the market is likely to stay volatile on conflicting signals.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.